Tuesday, 12 July 2016

Theresa May's in-tray problems & the EU

Having said that "Brexit means Brexit" PM-elect May has an awfully full in-tray. Here's just a few items.

  • the markets
  • Sterling
  • Scotland
  • the Irish border
  • the Gibraltar border
  • the frontier at Calais
  • the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market
  • re-issuing passports
  • Brits abroad
  • EU citizens in Britain
  • farming subsidies
  • Trident renewel
  • HS2 (or scrapping of it)
  • Heathrow expansion (or lack of it)
  • the mountain of legislation to be torn up and rewritten
  • attempting to re-unite her fractured party & then a deeply divided country
And all that is aside from figuring out what the actual fuck "Brexit" is and/or should look like. Alsongside this she has to keep the remaining nations on-side (or at least not piss them off too much) while she sorts stuff out.

She's already said she wont trigger Article 50, probably in early 2017. Understandably, the EU isn't happy about this. At all. Quite reasonably they say if we want out we should invoke the article & start on the 2 year negotiation. Also access to the single market requires obeying the rules which include the free movement of people.

There's already anecdotal evidence that the vote is having impacts (apart from sterling tanking etc):
  • banking companies have started opening departments on the continent
  • Lush has moved it's new factory to Portugal
  • UK Scientists & researchers are saying that they've been told to keep their names off EU-funded research proposals for fear of funding being denied
  •  UK Scientists & researchers being asked to step down from projects they are leading
  • companies are scaling back or freezing investment decisions, waiting to see what deal emerges
One problem with that is that we don;rt have enough/any trained trade negotiators (having effectively out-sourced this to the EU for the last 40+ years). According;ly we are going to have to hire in people from around Europe & the world (ie immigrants) to help.

What an Eton Mess!

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